报告题目：Modelling media/psychology induced behavior changes on transmission dynamics of infectious diseases

报告人：西安交大肖燕妮教授

报告时间：2021年11月12日15:00-17:00

报告地点：腾讯会议561512071

There are many challenges to quantifying and evaluating the media impact on the control of emerging infectious diseases. In this talk, we propose several mathematical models to fully investigate media impact on transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Initially, we formulate a implicit model to describe the incidence depending on the number of infected individuals and changing rate, and examine the dynamics. Then I propose a model by including both the response time for mass media and for individuals’ behavior changes. With two time delays, we comprehensively investigate the local and global bifurcation, and main results show that either the media described feedback cycle, or time delays can induce Hopf bifurcation and result in periodic oscillations. Further, we parameterized the proposed model on the basis of the 2009 A/H1N1pandemic influenza data in Shaanxi province, China, and estimated the basic reproduction number and the time delay. Finally, we extend the model by including the variable of the news item and apply this modelling approach to examine media impact on control of Covid-19 infection based on the multisource data.

肖燕妮 西安交通大学数学与统计学院副院长、数学与生命科学交叉研究中心主任、博士生导师。主要从事数据和问题驱动的传染病动力学的研究。 参与完成了国家“十一五”、“十二五”和“十三五”科技重大专项艾滋病领域的建模研究。受国家自然基金委天元基金的资助，2014年、2015年连续两年承办全国 “生物数学研究生暑期学校”。主持国家自然科学基金4项，其中重点项目1项。2008入选教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”，2017年至今任中国生物数学专业委员会副主任，2020年期任国务院学位委员会第八届学科评议组成员（数学）。